4-26. A variance is a difference between the actual situation during an operation and the forecasted plan for the situation at that time or event. A variance can be categorized as an opportunity or threat as shown with the vertical lines in figure 4-2 on page 4-6. The first form of variance is an opportunity to accomplish the mission more effectively. Opportunities result from forecasted or unexpected success. When commanders recognize an opportunity, they alter the order to exploit it if the change achieves the end state more effectively or efficiently. The second form of variance is a threat to mission accomplishment or survival of the force. When recognizing a threat, the commander adjusts the order to eliminate the enemy advantage, restore the friendly advantage, and regain the initiative.