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FM 6-0

8-8. During planning, running estimates are key sources of information during mission analysis. Following mission analysis, commanders and staff elements update their running estimates throughout the rest of the military decisionmaking process. Based on the mission and the initial commander’s intent, the staff develops one or more proposed courses of action (COAs) and continually refines its running estimates to account for the mission variables. The updated running estimates then support COA analysis (war-gaming) in which the staff identifies the strengths and weaknesses of each COA. The staff relies on its updated running estimate to provide input to the war game. Following COA analysis, the staff compares the proposed COAs against each other and recommends one of them to the commander for approval. During all these activities, each staff element continues to update and refine its running estimate to give commanders the best possible information available at the time to support their decisions. The selected COA provides each staff element an additional focus for its estimates and the key information it will need during orders production. Key information recorded in the running estimate may be included in orders, particularly in the functional annexes.
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